RESEARCH
UPDATED FEB 2026

Bitcoin Halving Cycles: Complete Analysis

Every 210,000 blocks, Bitcoin's block reward halves, reducing new supply by 50%. This analysis examines the historical impact of halvings on price action, adoption, and market cycles.

12 min read
4 Halvings Analyzed

Total Supply

21,000,000

Fixed forever

Current Inflation

~0.92%

Post 4th halving

Avg Gain (All Cycles)

+4,368%

From halving price to cycle high

Next Halving

2028

Block ~840,000

Halving History Comparison

HalvingDatePrice @ HalvingCycle HighGain
1st HalvingNov 28, 2012$12.30$1,1779,465%
2nd HalvingJul 9, 2016$650$19,8912,950%
3rd HalvingMay 11, 2020$8,727$69,044691%
4th HalvingApr 2024$63,400TBD (~2025)In Progress

Cycle Analysis & Patterns

Pre-Halving Rally

Historically, Bitcoin sees significant gains 6-12 months BEFORE the halving event as speculators anticipate the supply shock.

  • • 2016: +40% in 3 months before halving
  • • 2020: +35% in 2 months before halving
  • • 2024: +55% in 6 months before halving
Post-Halving Recovery

After each halving, there's typically a "calm before the storm" period of 3-6 months before the main bull run begins.

  • • 2016: Slow grind for 4 months, then explosive move
  • • 2020: Quick V-shape recovery from COVID crash
  • • 2024: Steady accumulation phase observed

📊 Key Takeaways

  • Average time from halving to new ATH: ~500 days
  • Each cycle sees lower percentage gains (diminishing returns)
  • Institutional adoption is extending cycle lengths
  • Reduced supply issuance makes BTC increasingly deflationary

Important Disclaimer

Past performance does not guarantee future results. While Bitcoin's halving has historically preceded bull markets, external factors (regulation, macroeconomic conditions, technological changes) can alter outcomes. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.