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Understanding Crypto Market Cycles | LiveVolatile

2025.09.1014 MIN READ

Essa Mamdani

AI Engineer & Crypto Volatility Analyst

Understanding Crypto Market Cycles

Crypto markets move in predictable cycles. Understanding them gives you a massive edge.

The Four Year Cycle

Bitcoin Halving Cycle

  • Halving occurs every 4 years
  • Historically followed by bull run
  • Supply shock drives price

Cycle Phases

Accumulation: Smart money buying after crash Low volatility, bottoming price

Markup (Bull Market): Prices rise, retail enters High volatility, upward trend

Distribution: Smart money selling to retail Topping formation, high volatility

Markdown (Bear Market): Prices decline, capitulation Extreme volatility, fear

Current Cycle Position 2026

Analyzing where we are in the current cycle based on:

  • On-chain metrics
  • Funding rates
  • Sentiment indicators
  • Historical patterns

Trading Each Phase

Accumulation: DCA buying Markup: Trend following Distribution: Taking profits Markdown: Protect capital

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