Markets don't move in random chaos. They breathe. They obey laws of supply and demand commanded by "Smart Money." Understanding where you are in the cycle is the difference between buying the bottom and holding the bag.

The Wyckoff Market Cycle

Developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, this model describes how institutional players manipulate price to accumulate positions at low prices and distribute them at high prices to retail traders.

Phase 1: Accumulation

This happens after a market crash (Crypto Winter). Prices move sideways in a range. The news is typically bearish ("Bitcoin is dead"). Smart Money is quietly buying from panic sellers.

• Volume: Low, but spikes on dips (absorption).
• Psychology: Depression, Disbelief.

Phase 2: Markup (Bull Run)

The price breaks out of the accumulation range. Higher highs and higher lows form. Trend followers jump in. FOMO begins to build.

• Volume: Increasing steadily.
• Psychology: Optimism, Excitement, Euphoria.

Phase 3: Distribution

The top. Smart Money begins selling their positions to the late retail herd who just saw the news on TV. Price stalls and moves sideways again, but with high volatility.

• Volume: Very high, but price stops increasing.
• Psychology: "Super Cycle" narratives, Greed.

Phase 4: Markdown (Bear Market)

Supply overwhelms demand. Price breaks support. Smart Money has already exited. Retail panic sells, driving the price down to the next Accumulation zone.

• Volume: Heavy on red candles.
• Psychology: Anxiety, Panic, Anger.

Timing Your Entry

The goal is to buy in Accumulation or early Markup, and sell in Distribution.

Most traders do the opposite: they sell in Accumulation because they are bored/scared, and buy in Distribution because they are greedy.