Understanding Crypto Market Cycles
Crypto markets move in predictable cycles. Understanding them gives you a massive edge.
The Four Year Cycle
Bitcoin Halving Cycle
- Halving occurs every 4 years
- Historically followed by bull run
- Supply shock drives price
Cycle Phases
Accumulation: Smart money buying after crash Low volatility, bottoming price
Markup (Bull Market): Prices rise, retail enters High volatility, upward trend
Distribution: Smart money selling to retail Topping formation, high volatility
Markdown (Bear Market): Prices decline, capitulation Extreme volatility, fear
Current Cycle Position 2026
Analyzing where we are in the current cycle based on:
- On-chain metrics
- Funding rates
- Sentiment indicators
- Historical patterns
Trading Each Phase
Accumulation: DCA buying Markup: Trend following Distribution: Taking profits Markdown: Protect capital