Four major cycles. Three critical metrics. One uncomfortable truth. This comprehensive analysis examines when Bitcoin crashes, how deep it falls, and how long recovery actually takes— backed by 13 years of historical data.
Avg Max Drawdown
-79.4%
Typical crash range
Avg Peak→Bottom
387days
~13 months pain
Avg Recovery
643days
~21 months patience
Median Recovery
730days
2 years typical
This chart visualizes the magnitude and duration of each cycle. The red bars represent the drawdown phase, while the total height shows the complete cycle length from peak to full recovery.
| Cycle | Max Drawdown | Recovery Time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013–2017 | -84.5% | ~720 days (~24 months) | Recovered |
| 2017–2020 | -84% | ~730 days (~24 months) | Recovered |
| 2021–2024 | -77% | ~480 days (~16 months) | Recovered |
| 2025–?? | -50% | ❌ Not recovered yet | Ongoing |
Important Definition: "Recovery" means Bitcoin reclaiming its previous all-time high, not just bouncing from the bottom. This is the critical metric that determines when a cycle officially ends.
Every major Bitcoin cycle has featured a 70-85% correction from the cycle peak. This isn't a bug — it's a feature of Bitcoin's market structure. As price discovery accelerates during bull markets, speculative excess is systematically washed out.
Pattern Observed
Time Factor
Average 387 days from peak to bottom. The market rarely bottoms quickly — it takes time to shake out weak hands and build a new base.
Volume Signature
bottoms typically coincide with capitulation volume — panic selling from retail, followed by absorption by institutions.
Once the bottom is in, the real test begins. Recovering to previous ATH takes longer than the drawdown itself — averaging 643 days (21 months). This phase tests investor patience more than the crash.
The "Lost Decade" Phenomenon
During recovery, price often trades flat for 12-18 months after the bottom. This is the most psychologically difficult period — known as the "hopium" phase where early buyers exit and only true believers remain.
Cycle Differences
2013 & 2017 cycles: 730 days recovery (longer)
2021 cycle: 480 days recovery (faster, due to ETF inflows)
2026 cycle: TBD (ongoing)
As of February 2026, Bitcoin sits at ~$63,000 after reaching $126,000 in October 2025. This represents a -50% correction — historically classified as "mid-cycle noise" rather than a true bear market.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. The 2021 cycle showed faster recovery due to institutional adoption (ETFs), which may shorten future cycles.
Peak to -20%
"This time is different." "To the moon." Everyone's a genius. New ATHs feel permanent.
-20% to -50%
"It's a correction." "Buy the dip." Support levels break. Denial turns to worry.
-50% to -70%
"It's dead." "Never recovering." Capitulation. Maximum pain. Smart money accumulates.
Bottom to +50% from bottom
Slow grind up. Most have given up. New highs feel impossible. "Dead cat bounce" narrative dominates.
+50% to Previous ATH
Slowly, disbelief turns to belief. "Maybe it will recover." Confidence builds. Cycle restarts.
Bitcoin is currently at $63,000 (Feb 2026), down from $126,000 (Oct 2025). This is a -50% correction — the deepest we've gone since 2022.
Key Differentiators This Cycle