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RECOVERED
DEC 2013 - JAN 2015
ORIGINAL CYCLE

Bitcoin Drawdown 2013–2017

The cycle that started it all. Bitcoin went from $1,150 to $178 — an -84.5% crash triggered by the infamous Mt. Gox collapse. Recovery took 720 days (2 years).

Max Drawdown

-84.5%

Peak→Bottom

410 days

Recovery Time

720 days

Cycle Visualization

0%-25%-50%-75%-100%
3.1 yrs
2013
-84.5%
2013
2017
2021
2025

What Happened

November 2013 - First Major Bubble

Bitcoin surges from $100 to $1,150 in weeks. Mainstream media goes crazy. "Bitcoin to $1 million!" headlines everywhere.

February 2014 - Mt. Gox Collapse

Mt. Gox, handling 70% of all Bitcoin trades, files for bankruptcy.Prices crash to $500. Panic selling ensues. The phrase "Bitcoin is dead" trends.

January 2015 - The Bottom

After 14 months of bleeding, Bitcoin bottoms at $178. This was the lowest point. Only true believers remained.

2015-2016 - The Grind

Slow recovery. Bitcoin trades between $200-$500 for 2 years. Infrastructure improves. Block reward halved in July 2016.

December 2017 - Recovery Complete

Bitcoin breaks $1,150. Cycle recovered!Total time: 1,130 days (3.1 years).

📊 Key Statistics

Max Drawdown-84.5%
Peak DateDec 4, 2013
Bottom DateJan 14, 2015
Bottom Price$178
Time to Bottom410 days
Time to Recovery720 days
Recovery DateDec 2017
Total Cycle1,130 days

💥 Why Mt. Gox Was Different

The Crisis

  • • 70% of all Bitcoin trades flowed through Mt. Gox
  • • Exchange was centralizing Bitcoin's liquidity
  • • Hackers exploited security flaws for years
  • • When it collapsed, it took confidence with it

The Recovery

  • • Bitcoin was still early — only ~5 years old
  • • Developers kept building (Lightning Network research)
  • • Institutional interest slowly grew
  • • 2016 halving reduced sell pressure

⏱️ Why Recovery Took 720 Days

  • •First major crash — No historical precedent
  • •Lost trust — Centralized exchange failures
  • •Slow infrastructure development — Bitcoin was primitive
  • •No institutional access — No ETFs, no futures

🌱 The Legacy of This Cycle

  • Bitcoin survived — Proved resilience against existential threat
  • Lessons learned — "Not your keys, not your coins"
  • Decentralization wins — No single point of failure
  • Set template — Future cycles followed similar patterns

🎓 Key Lessons From This Cycle

What Went Wrong

  • • Centralized exchanges are dangerous
  • • "To the moon" euphoria always ends in pain
  • • 14 months of drawdown is emotionally exhausting

What Went Right

  • • Buying at $178 = 12x+ returns by 2017
  • • "Not your keys, not your coins" became mantra
  • • Cycle repeated as predicted by halving theory

Other Cycle Analyses

2025-2028 (Current) →2021-2024 →2017-2020 →