Bitcoin Drawdown 2025–2028

The current cycle's correction from $126,000 to ~$63,000 represents a -50% drawdown. But is this the bottom? We analyze historical patterns to predict where we're headed.

Current Drawdown

-50%

Days Since Peak

~120

Status

Ongoing

Current Cycle Visualization

0%-25%-50%-75%-100%

Ongoing

2025

-50%

2013

2017

2021

2025

📊 Current Situation

Bitcoin reached its cycle peak of ~$126,000 in October 2025. Since then, we've seen a -50% correctionto approximately $63,000 by February 2026.

Key observations:

Current drop (-50%) is milder than historical averages (-70% to -85%)
Only ~4 months into the correction
Average peak-to-bottom historically takes 12-14 months
ETF inflows have provided strong support

Historical Comparison

2013-2017 Bottom-84.5%

2017-2020 Bottom-84%

2021-2024 Bottom-77%

Current (2025)-50%

🔮 Projections Based on History

Potential Bottom

$40K - $50K

-60% to -70% from ATH

Expected: Late 2026

Recovery Start

2027

Gradual accumulation phase

Expected: Q1-Q2 2027

Full Recovery

$126K+

Previous ATH reclaimed

Expected: 2027-2028

⚡ Why This Cycle Is Different

✓Spot ETFs: Holding significant BTC, reducing sell pressure
✓Institutional Adoption: Corporate treasury accumulation ongoing

✓Post-Halving: Reduced supply issuance since April 2024
✓Macro Environment: Potentially more favorable rate conditions

Other Cycle Analyses

2021-2024 →2017-2020 →2013-2017 →