Bitcoin Halving 2028 Predictions

The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for April 2028, reducing block rewards from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Based on historical patterns and supply shock models, we analyze what this means for price and market dynamics.

Halving Date

April 2028

Current Reward

3.125 BTC

New Reward

1.5625 BTC

Daily Issuance

~900 BTC

Historical Performance

Halving	Pre-Halving High	Cycle High	Gain
2012	$13	$1,177	+8,954%
2016	$650	$19,891	+2,960%
2020	$8,727	$69,044	+691%
2024	$63,400	TBD (~2025)	TBD
2028	TBD	TBD	TBD

2028 Price Predictions

Bear Case

$80K - $120K

If macro conditions worsen and adoption slows

Base Case

$150K - $250K

Based on historical patterns and continued adoption

Bull Case

$300K - $500K

If ETFs drive massive institutional flows

📊 Key Factors for 2028

✓ETF Maturation: By 2028, spot ETFs will be 4+ years old with established flows
✓Halving Effect: Daily Bitcoin issuance drops to ~450 BTC/day
✓Supply/Demand: Increasing demand vs decreasing supply

✓Macro Environment: Interest rates and global liquidity
✓Regulation: Clarity on crypto rules could unlock institutional capital
✓Global Adoption: More countries potentially adopting Bitcoin as reserve

Expected Timeline

2026-2027

Pre-Halving Rally

Typically begins 6-12 months before halving. Accumulation phase.

Q2 2028

Halving Event

Block reward drops to 1.5625 BTC. Supply shock begins.

2028-2029

Post-Halving Bull Run

Historically the strongest period. New all-time highs expected.